Number of Top-Scoring Express Entry Profiles Drops by 30%: What This Means for Lower-CRS Candidates

In the early months of the year, Canada's Express Entry system has been observing a notable trend: the number of applications with the highest CRS scores is declining sharply, while the total number of applications in the pool continues to grow.

Many experts consider this development a positive sign for candidates with average to above-average scores, especially those currently below the 500-point CRS mark.

What is Express Entry?

Express Entry is Canada's skilled worker immigration application management system, applicable to three main programs:

• Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP)
• Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP)
• Canadian Experience Class (CEC)

Each Express Entry profile is scored according to the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS), based on age, education level, work experience, language skills, job offer, provincial nomination (PNP), etc.

IRCC will invite applications (ITAs) in order from highest to lowest CRS score, including category-based draws.

The number of CRS 501+ applications has dropped sharply in one month.

During the period from April 1st to February 2nd, Express Entry recorded:

• 6,238 profiles with a CRS of 501 or higher have left the pool.
• The main reason stems from the sharp decline in the 501-600 point range.

Specifically:

• CRS 501–600: decreased from 21,013 to 14,911 cases (a decrease of approximately 29%).
• CRS 601–1200: decreased from 559 to 423 cases (a decrease of approximately 24%)

Meanwhile, the total number of applications in the pool increased by 2,366, thanks to a strong surge in the sub-500 CRS score groups.

This shows that:
Express Entry đang bớt “top-heavy”, tức là không còn quá nhiều hồ sơ điểm rất cao đứng chặn phía trên.

What changes have been made to the current Express Entry profile structure?

As of February 2nd, the distribution of profiles in Express Entry shows:

• The group with scores between 351 and 400 points accounts for the largest proportion (over 22%).
• The groups with scores between 401 and 490 points all increased steadily in number.
• The 501+ group, while still among the highest percentiles, has narrowed considerably.

In other words, competition at the top of the leaderboard is cooling down, even though the overall pool continues to expand.

Understanding "percentile" correctly in Express Entry

Percentile (ranking percentage) indicates where your profile stands relative to the entire pool.

Example

• A profile ranking in the 95–99 percentile means you are in the top 1–5% of highest-scoring profiles.
• The 501–600 CRS group currently ranges from 93.58% to 99.82%.
• The 491–500 CRS group falls within the range of 87.9%–93.58%.

As the number of applications in the highest percentile decreases, applications further down the scale are likely to "move up" more quickly when IRCC opens a suitable application draw.

What does this mean for candidates with less than 500 CRS?

The sharp decrease in the number of 500+ cases has several important impacts:

• Reduce the level of direct competition in large application withdrawal rounds.
• Increase opportunities for 451–500 CRS candidates, especially in the following rounds:
  • Withdraw files by occupation.
  • Withdraw your application based on work experience in Canada.
  • Withdrawal of application in conjunction with PNP

However, the specific opportunity still depends on the type of draw and the number of ITAs issued at any given time.

Conclusion

Express Entry is entering a rebalancing phase:

• Fewer applications with extremely high scores.
• More profiles with GPA are joining the pool.

This is a crucial time to:

• Review your Express Entry profile.
• Optimize your CRS score (language, experience, PNP, etc.)
• Closely monitor application withdrawals by subject group.

With the right strategy, candidates with less than 500 CRS still have a good chance of receiving an Invitation to Apply (ITA) this year.