I. Overview of CEC over the past year (2025)

1. CEC remains the highest priority group for IRCC in Express Entry.

Looking at the CEC withdrawals over the past year, three major characteristics can be observed:

(1) The drawing frequency is regular, not a random “mutation”
CEC không còn là nhóm “đợi thời” như giai đoạn hậu COVID. IRCC duy trì các đợt rút tương đối đều, cho thấy:

• Canada needs to retain the workforce already employed in the country.
• CEC plays a role in stabilizing the workforce, not just as a temporary solution.

(2) CRS is not low, but it is no longer escalating indefinitely.

• CRS CEC năm qua chủ yếu dao động trong vùng 510–535
• Large withdrawals (3,000–6,000 ITAs) typically cause the CRS to drop significantly.
  → This shows that CRS no longer increases indefinitely, but depends on the scale and objectives of the policy.

(3) Large-scale withdrawals occur more frequently than before.
Four out of the ten largest withdrawals in Express Entry history have occurred in the last two years, reflecting:

• IRCC is ready to release large quantities of water when needed to meet its targets.
• Candidates in the pool always have a chance of being invited, even if their CRS isn't very high.

II. 4 core lessons learned for CEC candidates

Lesson 1: The earlier you join the pool, the higher your chances of winning.

The CEC 2021 mega-draw (27,332 ITAs – CRS 75) is an extreme example, but the lesson remains relevant:

• Candidates with a CRS score of 300–400 may still be invited to:
  • Unusually large withdrawal
  • Withdrawals by category (category-based)
  • Domestic priority withdrawal (CEC-focused)

Common mistakes:

"The CRS is too low; I'll wait for it to increase before creating a profile."

This is how you eliminate yourself from opportunities.

Candidates may be able to:

• Go to the pool first
• Increase points later (English, French, experience, job offer, etc.)
  But there's no turning back time after missing a withdrawal.

Lesson 2: You can be invited before the CRS officially increases.

A point many CEC candidates are unaware of:

• IRCC calculates experience by months, not days.
• Example
  • Start date: January 27, 2025
  • One year of experience is calculated from January 1, 2026, not January 27, 2026.

Practical consequences:

• It is possible to receive an ITA 1–2 months before the "full year" date.
• IRCC assumes that the applicant will be eligible upon submission of a complete PR application.

If you wait until "CRS has increased before joining the pool" → it's very easy to miss the opportunity.

Lesson 3: Tie-breaking rules are crucial for survival.

When multiple people have the same CRS cutoff score:

• Those who submit their profiles earlier will be invited.
• Applicants who submit later will fail, even if their scores are identical.

Common risks:

• Create profile late
• Let the profile expire
• Wait until your IELTS/TEF results expire before updating.

CEC is a group that competes over time, not just in terms of points.

Lesson 4: CEC is not outside the policy-driven selective trend.

CEC is currently inseparable from:

• Category-based selection
• Industry priority
• French is preferred
• Prioritize teams working in areas experiencing shortages.

Here's a real-world example:

• CEC candidates working in eligible category-based industries have two options.
• Candidates who are studying/taking French language exams:
  • Points have been added to NCLC 5.
  • There's no need to wait until NCLC 7 to see the benefits.

III. Strategic Advice for CEC Candidates in 2026

1. Always be in the Express Entry pool.

CEC 2026 will continue to be:

• The pillar of retaining domestic labor.
• This group was given priority by IRCC because they "have integrated into the Canadian labor market."

Principle:

Not strong enough → still in the pool
Strong enough → even less likely to be slow

2. Manage records chronologically, not just by CRS.

CEC candidates should watch out for:

• Month of starting work
• Month of 1 year / 2 years / 3 years of experience
• IELTS / CELPIP / TEF Deadline
• EE profile expiration date

CEC is about profile management, not just about earning points.

3. Proactively follow policy trends for 2026.

CEC groups have a clear advantage in the coming year:

• Working in a shortage industry
• Do you have or are improving your French skills?
• Having a clear career path, with the correct NOC/TEER

Applicants should:

• Declare your experience accurately and promptly.
• Update in small steps (don't wait for the "full combo").

4. Don't pursue CEC passively.

CEC is no longer:

"Work for a full year → submit → wait"

CEC is currently:

• Follow the policy
• Keep track of withdrawal schedule
• Proactively optimize each stage.

Brief conclusion

The CEC program is not an easy path, but it is the most realistic option for those who have worked or are currently working in Canada.
The year 2026 will not reward those who wait, but those who are already prepared in the pool.