Sharp Decline in High-Scoring Express Entry Profiles: A Positive Signal for CEC Candidates in 2026

Dữ liệu mới nhất từ hệ thống Express Entry cho thấy một xu hướng đáng chú ý: số lượng hồ sơ có điểm CRS cao đang giảm nhanh hơn tốc độ bổ sung hồ sơ mới, trong khi chính phủ Canada liên tục tăng số lượng thư mời nộp hồ sơ thường trú (ITA).
Diễn biến này đang tạo ra nhiều kỳ vọng cho các ứng viên thuộc nhóm Canadian Experience Class (CEC), đặc biệt là những người có điểm CRS ở mức thấp 500.
in business.

Overview: High-scoring profiles drop by nearly 50% in just two weeks.

Based on official data published by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), a significant shift in the composition of high-scoring profiles within the Express Entry pool is evident.

Statistics on the number of applications according to the CRS scoring system.

CRS score range	02/02/2026	15/02/2026
501 – 600	14,911	16,559
601 – 1200	423	280

Notably, the number of applications with a CRS score above 600 points decreased by more than 33% in just 13 days.

The successive rounds of application withdrawals have resulted in a "depletion" of high-scoring applications.

Immediately after the February 15, 2026 deadline, IRCC held two consecutive large-scale document withdrawals:

• February 16, 2026: Withdrawal of PNP (Provincial Nominee Program) application
  • 279 ITA
  • Cut-off point: 789
• February 17, 2026: Withdrawal of Canadian Experience Class (CEC) application
  • 6,000 ITA
  • Cut-off point: 508

With such a large number of ITAs, the majority of high-scoring applications have been invited to apply for PR, while the number of new applications added to the high-scoring group is insufficient to compensate.

Current estimate: Only about 11,000 applications remain on the 501 CRS sites.

Based on the profile distribution on February 15th and the number of ITAs issued since then, it can be estimated that there are currently only about 11,000 profiles with a CRS score of 501 or higher remaining in the Express Entry pool.

Note:

• This is just a rough estimate.
• IRCC did not release details on the number of new cases created or scores increased after February 15.

However, the downward trend is very clear and systematic, not a random fluctuation.

Why is the CRS cut-off point for CEC decreasing?

The main reason lies in the fact that the rate of ITA issuance is faster than the rate of increase in high-scoring applications. When IRCC invites more applications than the number of new high-scoring applications, the inevitable result is:

• The pool is gradually being "drained" at the high score level.
• The cut-off point had to be lowered to meet the planned number of ITAs.

The trend chart shows:

• From January 2025 to the present, the CEC cut-off point has been continuously declining.
• Previously, the last time the CEC had a cut-off below 510 was on September 19, 2024.

Candidates with a low CEC score of 500: Opportunities are opening up.

The current trend is giving very positive signals for:

• Experienced workers in Canada
• CRS score is in the range of 500 – 510
• The application is complete (all necessary documents, valid IELTS score, valid work experience).

If IRCC continues to maintain its current rate of processing applications, the overall CEC score could fall further in future rounds.

Target for 2026: IRCC is moving faster than in 2025.

As of now:

• 2026:
  • 20,000 ITA CEC have been issued.
  • Tương đương 18% chỉ tiêu Federal High Skilled (FHS) là 109,000 suất
• Same period in 2025 (February 28, 2025):
  • 9,350 ITA CEC
  • Chỉ chiếm 7.5% chỉ tiêu FHS

This indicates that IRCC is accelerating the call for CEC applications in 2026, significantly earlier and more aggressively than in the previous year.

Conclusion

The rapid decrease in the number of high-scoring applications in Express Entry, combined with the frequent and large-scale withdrawals of CEC applications, is one of the most positive signs for the group of workers already employed in Canada.

For CEC candidates, this is a crucial stage to:

• Get ready for further withdrawals in 2026.
• Review the records.
• Optimize your CRS score if possible.