Canadians Prepare For Any Outcome As Trump Declares Victory
WASHINGTON — Early Wednesday morning, former President Donald Trump declared victory as Pennsylvania’s swing back to the Republicans significantly reduced Vice President Kamala Harris’s path to winning.
"I will govern by a simple motto: promises made, promises kept," Trump told cheering supporters at a watch party in Florida.
At the time of his speech, only Fox News had declared his victory. Trump spoke of his commitment to healing the country and strengthening the border, vowing to fight tirelessly for American families.
"Look what happened. Is this crazy?" Trump said. "But it's a political victory that our country has never seen before."
As Americans watched the results of Tuesday’s election unfold, a deeply divided United States emerged, with key battleground states still being counted late into the night. Trump also secured North Carolina and Georgia, dashing much of the hope Democrats held as they waited for Harris’s results in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Late Tuesday, Harris’s campaign chair sent a memo to staff stating that the Midwestern “blue wall” states represented the Democrats’ “clearest path” to victory and that they were prepared for vote counting to continue into Wednesday morning.
"If you had asked me earlier, I would have said cautiously optimistic, I think seeing the numbers come in, I am feeling more trepidation," said Alessia Stewart at a watch party in Washington, where each new gain for Trump brought waves of disappointment through the room.
"But still trying to hold on to some optimism."
As the intense presidential campaign reached its climax, many Americans found themselves torn between anxiety and anticipation. Bars across the U.S. capital were filled with people glued to the election results. At Union Pub near Capitol Hill, election-themed drinks like the Dirty Walz—made with Mountain Dew, vodka, and grenadine—and They’re Drinking The Cats—whiskey and sour mix served with cat-shaped straws—were on the menu.
Meanwhile, some businesses had already boarded up their windows, and security fences were set up outside the White House, creating an uneasy atmosphere for visitors concerned about potential violence on election day.
"Whatever happens in the election, I am confident in America," said Randy Biard in Washington on Tuesday afternoon.
Harris and Trump have presented sharply contrasting visions for the future, but as millions of Americans voted, polling showed the two were in a tight race.
Trump hosted a watch party at Mar-a-Lago in Florida, where his supporters cheered loudly each time it was announced that he was leading Harris. Meanwhile, Harris gathered with supporters at her alma mater, Howard University in Washington.
At Howard, students filled the campus gymnasium for a lively watch party with music and dancing. Despite the uncertain results, spirits remained high as the early returns came in.
"I’m very excited, nervous, but I think what’s meant to be will be," said 20-year-old party attendee Tyette Manna.
Canada’s shared history and its 8,891-kilometre border won’t protect it from the impact of the election’s result, according to Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s ambassador to the United States. "Any election in the U.S. is important and impactful for us."
"They are central to our economic prosperity. They are a vital security partner."
Hillman has been touring the United States, meeting with key members of both the Republican and Democrat teams to brace for any outcome. After fulfilling her embassy duties on election night, she planned to watch the results with her husband and friends. Hillman is acutely aware of the significant stakes for Canada.
"Whoever is sitting in the Oval Office and populating Congress is making decisions that may affect Canada, either decisions that provide us with opportunities or decisions that pose challenges for us," Hillman said. "The job is to be ready for both."
Both candidates have suggested protectionist policies, but experts caution that if the Republican leader wins, the relationship between the two neighbors could become significantly more challenging.
"Trump and some of the key people around him, including (former trade representative) Robert Lighthizer, really want to stick it to Canada," said Fen Hampson, international affairs professor at Carleton University, Ottawa.
Trump’s first term highlighted Canada’s vulnerability to America’s decisions, especially when he abandoned the North American Free Trade Agreement. Negotiating its replacement, the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, became a major challenge for Ottawa after Trump’s victory. The next occupant of the White House will oversee the agreement’s review in 2026.
One significant concern for Canada and the global community is Trump’s proposed 10 percent tariff on all goods. A report from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce suggests this would harm the Canadian economy, leading to about $30 billion in annual economic losses. American economists have warned that Trump’s plan could trigger inflation and potentially a recession, which would likely create ripple effects in Canada. With over 77 percent of Canadian exports going to the U.S. and trade representing 60 percent of Canada’s GDP, the impact would be substantial.
"When the American economy is growing, it's generally good for us," Hampson said. "If they take a deep dive under Trump … that will have a knock-on effect on us, on top of tariffs."
The election result could also reshape America’s global role. Trump has been outspoken against providing aid to Ukraine in its conflict with Russia, criticized the United Nations, and repeatedly stated he would not defend NATO members who fail to meet defense spending targets — a standard Canada has not met and will not meet for years. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has committed to reaching the target of spending 2 percent of GDP on defense by 2032.
During his first term, Trump also pulled the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement, an international accord aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Hampson noted that the Republican push against international institutions and treaties would have a significant impact on Canada, as well as on key allies and the global order.
If Harris wins, relations are expected to return to more predictable patterns, but smooth sailing for Canada is not guaranteed. It is anticipated that Harris would continue the foreign policy and trade approach set by President Joe Biden.
Biden had previously signed an executive order to revoke the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline, which would have transported oil from Alberta to Nebraska. The administration’s Buy America procurement rules also raised concerns in Canada.
A Harris administration is expected to carry on with nationalist and protectionist policies, as Harris has expressed during her campaign. While her stance on returning manufacturing jobs to the U.S. is popular as a slogan, it poses challenges for Canada. Dawson warned that regardless of who wins, Canada will need to work harder to preserve the benefits of integrated trade and travel during a cabinet retreat in August.
